PREMIUM
PENN ST ML: BEST BET NCAAF
(NCAAF) Buckeyes (OSU) vs. Nittany Lions (PSU),
Money Line: 140.00 Nittany Lions (PSU) (Home)
Result: Loss
Money Line: 140.00 Nittany Lions (PSU) (Home)
Result: Loss
I'm picking Penn State to topple Ohio State on Sunday, making the PSU ML (+140) my best bet of the Sunday NCAAF schedule!
Here's why...
-Penn State QB Beau Pribula was excellent in relief of starter Drew Allar vs. Wisconsin, completing 11 of his 13 passes for 98 yards and a TD and rushing for 28. While those stats don't pop, his dual-threat ability transforms the PSU offense, which has a unique playbook in place for the sophomore. Pribula can reinvigorate the Nittany Lions, as Marcel Reed did for Texas A&M last week vs. LSU when he replaced Connor Weigman. Pribula allows PSU to open up its RPO offense, and the triple option within a spread concept fits Pribula's skill set, which offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki emphasized at Kansas the past few seasons.
-The Buckeyes defense could have issues defending Pribula and the PSU running backs. The D-line ranks outside the top 50 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate and the Bucks have really struggled to defend power rush concepts. The Lions have dominated in rushing attempts using power concepts with a 65% Success Rate and a high EPA (Expected Points Added) of 0.64. PSU RB Nicholas Singleton (6.4 YPC) is a powerful back who is a consistent home run threat, with double-digit runs in every game he's played this season.
-Ohio State's offensive line leaves much to be desired, ranking outside the top 50 in pass blocking, and is dealing with a significant injury, as left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the season vs. Oregon. The Buckeyes run a lot of inside zone reads with OC Chip Kelly, but the Nittany Lions have been superb defending it, allowing a 38% Success Rate. PSU's defense has been tremendous overall, ranking top five in opponent rush explosives, Stuff Rate and Line Yards.
Here's why...
-Penn State QB Beau Pribula was excellent in relief of starter Drew Allar vs. Wisconsin, completing 11 of his 13 passes for 98 yards and a TD and rushing for 28. While those stats don't pop, his dual-threat ability transforms the PSU offense, which has a unique playbook in place for the sophomore. Pribula can reinvigorate the Nittany Lions, as Marcel Reed did for Texas A&M last week vs. LSU when he replaced Connor Weigman. Pribula allows PSU to open up its RPO offense, and the triple option within a spread concept fits Pribula's skill set, which offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki emphasized at Kansas the past few seasons.
-The Buckeyes defense could have issues defending Pribula and the PSU running backs. The D-line ranks outside the top 50 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate and the Bucks have really struggled to defend power rush concepts. The Lions have dominated in rushing attempts using power concepts with a 65% Success Rate and a high EPA (Expected Points Added) of 0.64. PSU RB Nicholas Singleton (6.4 YPC) is a powerful back who is a consistent home run threat, with double-digit runs in every game he's played this season.
-Ohio State's offensive line leaves much to be desired, ranking outside the top 50 in pass blocking, and is dealing with a significant injury, as left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the season vs. Oregon. The Buckeyes run a lot of inside zone reads with OC Chip Kelly, but the Nittany Lions have been superb defending it, allowing a 38% Success Rate. PSU's defense has been tremendous overall, ranking top five in opponent rush explosives, Stuff Rate and Line Yards.
