Cincinnati has won every game the 23-year-old Julian Aguiar has started, and I'm confident the home team will at least cover the run line Thursday afternoon against Atlanta.

The Braves have a .302 OBP on the road, where they are 27-28 against the run line. Cincy sports the best run line record in MLB (86-67) with a 56-33 RL record as betting underdogs and a 19-12 RL record as home underdogs.

The Braves are 4-6 against the spread in their last ten overall and have dropped two of their last three games straight-up to the Reds.