ARKST vs. MICH (Over 47.5)
(NCAAF) Red Wolves (ARKS) vs. Wolverines (MICH),
Total: 47.50 | -109.00 Over
Result: Loss
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Arkansas State poses a threat with a mobile QB who isn't afraid to take deep shots down the field. Jaylen Raynor is an experienced player with a legit receiving threat in Corey Rucker. I don't expect the Wolverines to dominate the Red Wolves on the defensive side of the ball for four quarters. The Red Wolves are a well-coached team with a veteran QB who is capable of making big plays. They have converted 48.7 percent of their third downs (39th) and Michigan has not been stout on third down (111th in opponent third down conversion percentage). Arkansas State has converted 100 percent of its red zone trips and Michigan has allowed a score on 83.3 percent of its opponents' red zone drives, as well. The Red Wolves are talented enough to score 14-17 points, competing enough to get the best of the Wolverines' offense.

UM QB Davis Warren hasn't looked great so far but I'm confident he is reliable enough to keep the chains moving with the Wolverines' ground game likely to run wild against Arkansas State's weak run D (6.2 yards per carry and 199.0 rushing yards allowed per game). The Red Wolves were mediocre against the pass last season and haven't created turnovers on the defensive side of the ball. Furthermore, Michigan has a 100 percent red-zone conversion percentage and the Red Wolves' defense has allowed a score on 100.0 percent of their opponents’ red-zone appearances.