I'm wagering on the Guardians to win straight-up on Saturday. 

Cleveland has a winning record (12-11 SU) as moneyline underdogs at home in 2023, one of only six teams in MLB that can say that. It will take all it has tomorrow to upset Tampa Bay, but it can pull it off.

The Guardians are being overlooked despite winning consecutive series over the division-leading Twins and the Wild Card-contending Blue Jays. They may not be anyone's favorite to win the Central today, but that could change with a few more victories. Logan Allen likely shares that sentiment with his teammates, as he's undervalued despite his impressive play.

The 24-year-old has looked like a veteran at times in his first big league season and will be out to prove it again versus a dangerous Rays lineup. While some will write him off, I'm betting on the southpaw to get the job done. He's been a consistent pitcher both at home (3.70 ERA) and on the road (3.51 ERA) this season and is coming off an impressive string of starts in August. The Blue Jays benefitted from seeing him twice in three weeks, which is likely why they had more success against him in the second outing. Allen was otherwise very impressive, allowing four runs in each of his first four outings and no more than two runs in any of his appearances last month.

Rays starter Zack Littell, on the other hand, gave up four runs in both of his previous starts. He's given up six homers in his last four outings, allowing at least one HR in each game. After starting the season in the bullpen, he may be getting too stretched out. Saturday's game will be his seventh consecutive start and I feel confident we will see more cracks in his armor vs. the Guardians.