There is significant value in the Cincinnati ML at +147, making it my Best Bet of Thursday's MLB schedule.

Reds starter Brandon Williamson held Arizona to one run on three hits on July 22, picking up a win. He only needed 80 pitches to get through six frames in that outing. He didn't have his best stuff in his last start (four runs and nine hits vs. Toronto) but has been solid otherwise recently, holding his previous three opponents this month to nine combined hits with 22 strikeouts in 16.2 innings. He's allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last ten starts and has held 13 of his 17 opponents to three or less runs scored. The D-Backs are scoring just 4.1 runs since the All-Star break and 3.8 runs in August. They've been hot lately, winning nine of their last 11 games, but I expect them to cool off on Thursday.

Arizona starter Merrill Kelly is a solid pro, but is he worth all that juice? He has three multi-HR outings in his last four starts and walked four batters in his last start. The Reds have been a better team on the road (34-27 SU) than at home (31-34), slashing .256 BA/.333 OBP/.411 SLG/.744 OPS away from Great American Ball Park, averaging 4.9 runs per game as visitors.

I'll bet on Cincy, 28-25 SU as road underdogs this season, to come out on top on Thursday night in Phoenix!