Colorado sports a 29-28 run line record as an underdog and a 13-12 run line record as a home underdog this year. The Padres have a 20-22 run line record as favorites and a 9-10 run line record vs. their NL West rivals.

The Rockies slash .282 BA/.341 OBP/.454 SLG/.796 OPS at home (33 GP) with 126 extra-base hits, including 30 of their 51 long balls. They also hit more consistently during the daytime (.274/.337/.393/.730 in 25 GP) than under the lights (.250/.308/.409/.717 in 40 GP). I predict they'll be successful at the dish against Snell, who should be due for some regression after three sterling starts.

San Diego's bats have not shown up on a regular basis away from home (.214/.309/.386/.695 in 30 GP) and their splits vs. right-handed pitchers stink (.215/.314/.367/.681). They're coming off a poor performance at the dish (.212/.314/.360/.675) in May, too. Lamet was a Padre for the first four and a half years of his career, so he has plenty of knowledge of the Friars. I predict he'll perform well enough to keep the home team within striking distance — hence the Rockies run line pick.