The Tar Heels are 0-6-1 against the spread this season and have fallen apart after the first few weeks. Their defense has major holes and their offense has struggled to be consistent as they give up over 473 total yards to ACC opponents and are only averaging 26 points of offense, giving up 26 points to opponents, and are turning over the ball too much. Virginia has played better at home and their defense is in much better shape and they will be able to stop UNC’s run game. They demonstrated that they can hang with Clemson last week and led them in the first half which says a lot about this team because nobody has been able to get an early lead on Clemson this season in any game and hold it for at least a half and they were able to move the ball on them and put up 31 points. They will be able to run the ball on the Tar Heels because they struggle to stop the run. Virginia is just the better team right now on both sides of the ball and this number is small enough, lay it with confidence. Virginia is 5-1 against the spread this season versus conference opponents and 14-5 ATS versus conference opponents. The Cavaliers are 9-2 ATS versus good offensive teams who are scoring 31 or more points per game. North Carolina is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against Virginia while Virginia are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games played in October.

Best bet: lay the points with Virginia.