Baltimore is a very physical team and their defense is going to slow down the Chiefs offense in this game. Mahomes won’t have all his offensive weapons available to throw to in this first game like Brown, and generally Prime time games last season tended to stay under the total. All in all, this game should be a defensive struggle between the two and the Chiefs have also added more defensive pieces to their lineup in the off-season. Baltimore is 0-4 to the Under in their last four versus the AFC West and they are 1-4 to the Under versus the conference as underdogs getting 5 points or less. Baltimore is also 1-3 to the Under in their last four Game One’s. KC is 0-5 to the Under as a home favorite of 6 points or less. KC is also 0-3 to the Under in Thursday games in the last two seasons. The Chiefs are also 2-18 to the Under in their first of a back to back home game and have gone under in eight of their last home games. Last season’s opener for the Chiefs had a total of 41 points combined and their only game against the Ravens last season had a combined score of 27 points. There is value in taking the Under.

Best bet: take the Under the Total.