Houston has won their last nine games as they come into this series, they are putting Valdez on the mound. The team has won his last ten starts and he has been solid and on fire for the Astros. He has helped the team secure a number one spot in the AL East. They have a 5 cushion but they need to keep pressing. Houston has done well in Baltimore winning their last 18 of 24 games in that Ballpark. Overall, the Astros have dominated the Orioles over the years going 37-16 in their last 53 meetings. Baltimore is in their own playoff race and they can’t afford to lose, but the bad news is that they are 0-5 versus Houston. Even with Suarez on the mound who has pitched light outs in the last few weeks, it is their bullpen that is letting them down late in games as it sits at 23rd in the league. They face a team with a better bullpen ranked 4th right now, a team that is experienced at this time of the season and knows how to win. There's a reason they are favored in this game and that is where the value lies.

Best bet: take Houston on the moneyline (ML).