With Fried on the mound for Atlanta, there isn’t going to be many runs in this game, even if he is on a pitch count, the bullpen is good and will do their job. Atlanta will get a few off of Cabrera in this game, but not enough to take this game over. Cabrera has pitched a little better for Miami in July in his last few games and he may not give up too much here in this spot as he is striking out more batters in his last few starts. The total has gone Under in 6 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta. The Miami bullpen has improved somewhat in July so they will go to work in this game as well as the Braves bullpen, which is much better than Miami, and will prevent runs as well. The Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta between these two. Atlanta generally plays to the Under at home, going Under in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home.

Best bet: take the Under the Total.