Patrick Corbin improved his ERA in July but he still isn’t great on the road with an ERA of 5.52 on the road. The team still lost three of his last four starts and he gave up three earned runs, and three walks in his last start that he lost. Their bullpen is sitting near the bottom of the league and Arizona is going to get at both, especially Corbin who is a left handed pitcher, as the Diamondbacks are hitting lefties hard in July and batters are hitting Corbin at .326 against him. Washington is 1-6 in their last 7 games against Arizona. Nelsen has been solid for Arizona and had an amazing July where he improved on his ERA to 2.97 and WHIP to 1.05 so far. Before his last start, he only gave up six runs across four starts and one home run. So he has been sharp and should do well in this spot as a right handed pitcher. Washington is still struggling to hit righties and they aren’t going to be able to generate much offense against him. Arizona is the stronger team and this is the time of year where they pour it on. The Diamondbacks are 7-2 in their last 9 games as a home favorite. There is good value on taking the runline as Arizona can cover that at home.

Best bet: take Arizona -1 or on the runline (RL).