The Sun have the advantage in rest as they haven’t played in a few days and they play a tired Phoenix team on a back to back at home. The Mercury lost to the Fever at home and they may be depleted for a good defensive Sun team. The Mercury allowed the Fever to get 88 points up on the board so they're not playing a tight defensive game as they have allowed opponents to put up 85 points on average in the last three games. That is not good going up against the defensive minded Sun who are only giving up 80 points to opponents in their last three games and good at getting steals and turnovers and good at the charity stripe. Phoenix struggles with turnovers and defending the 3 point line. The Sun need this game to get back on track and should be able to get the win in this spot as the spread is small enough for the road team to cover and they should be able to get past the Mercury defense like Indiana did. Head to head, the Sun have won eight of their last ten games and have covered in six of those out of ten. The Sun already beat the Mercury earlier this season 70-47 and though this is a revenge game for the Mercury, it's going to be tough in a back to back spot for this veteran team.

Best bet: lay the points with Connecticut Sun.