The Mercury are playing the Sparks again at home, a team they have beaten soundly 87-68 without Griner and Allen in the lineup. Since Griner’s return, they have won their last three out of four home games and this is a spot that suits the Mercury well. They face Los Angeles who are without one of their best players in Brink, they struggle to defend the interior, and have too many injuries that will affect them in this spot. They have been too inconsistent this season to trust in a spot like this, especially on the road where they are 1-9 against the spread. This is also the sixth straight road game for Los Angeles so this is a bad spot for them and that is why there is value in laying the points with Phoenix as Griner and co run up the score on the Sparks. Phoenix is 10-2 against the spread when they score 78 or more points in a game this season. Los Angeles is 6-15 against the spread in road games after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons, and 0-3 this season after scoring 80 points or more in 2 straight games. The Sparks are 0-1 this season and 1-4 in the last three seasons as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Sparks lost twice to the Liberty on the road in their last few games by 10 and 13 points, they lost by 9 points to the Sun on the road, and lost by 13 points to Atlanta on the road, a team that struggles to shoot. The Sparks have averaged 78 points in their last four games while the Mercury have averaged 88 points. This Sparks team is struggling with their offense and the Mercury should cover this spread.

Best bet: lay the points with Phoenix.