The Padres offense has been killing it lately and they have a good road record, 15-10. Their starting pitcher Waldron is in better form than Montas. Waldron struck out 10 batters in his last outing while only giving up one earned run. He will keep his team in the game as their offense gets to Montas early and often. Montas is struggling with control issues, giving up 10 earned runs and 3 home runs in his last three starts and struggles to strike out batters. The Padres can get to him with their powerful offensive lineup because the Padres have had great success against the Reds going 12-5 straight up against them in their last 17 games. The Padres are just better offensively and can overcome any minor mishaps that Waldron might have. The Reds have struggled with their offense and they will struggle again today. There is value in taking the team that is winning games right now versus a Reds team that is 1-8 straight up at home and 4-16 straight up in their last 20 games.

Best bet: take San Diego on the moneyline (ML).