Milwaukee plays better defense when Giannis is in the lineup as he tends to block a lot more shots for the team, so expect them to let more shots in as they struggle to block shots and allow turnovers which helps with more points for the Pacers. Also with Lillard possibly out, look for Middleton to step up on offensive production again as the Bucks will step up with better production from role players and their bench to compensate. Siakam should have a better game 3 too as he didn't put up as many points as he did in the first three games. In this spot, both sides will step up in their offensive scoring which helps the total. Their last three games head to head between these two teams were played Over the total. At home, the Pacers have played over the total in the majority of their games all season, so expect them to keep pace as they run the score up on the Bucks again. When Milwaukee is on the road and playing against the Pacers, the score went over the total in their last six road games. Milwaukee is 15-6 to the Over when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. Indiana is 41-25 to the Over as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. Indiana is 16-6 to the Over in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers are 26-13 to the Over this season, and 75-46 to the Over in the last three seasons after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Expect this game to go over again.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.