Oklahoma City have beaten the Pelicans this season with Zion in the lineup and without him. Even though the Pelicans secured their spot in this playoff series with a defensive win against the Kings, and being without Zion, the Thunder are another problem for this tired and injured team. This is the youngest team to secure a number one spot, and this will be the first time in the playoffs for them in a long while, so the excitement will be there with the home crowd and the organization, and with the players. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back and fully acclimated with the team, they are going to be a potent offensive force in this series, and the Thunder also have an effective defense, a physical presence in the paint and better at the charity stripe. The Pelicans are a defensive team but will not be able to keep up with the pace and scoring by OKC. They also don't have a strong perimeter defense and allow a lot of 3 point shooting by opponents. They are going to outshoot this defense as they average 129 points per season and they went 33-8 straight up at home this season and they also went 27-14-0 against the spread at home. OKC beat the Pelicans twice this season and covered in all three games. The Pelicans are 10-20 against the spread when they have won 5 or 6 of their last seven games this season. Most importantly, New Orleans are 1-7 against the spread this season after a game where both teams scored 105 points or less. OKC comes out hot in their first home game of the series and gets a tired, Zionless team. OKC is going to outplay the Pelicans and run up the score, lay the points in this first game of the series, as they are well rested and didn't have to play extra games in a play-in. The Thunder will make this a statement game.

Best bet: lay the points with Oklahoma City.