This is a play on NC State being able to stop Edey and Purdue. Purdue up until now have had an easy road to this point and have made it look easy. Edey has played the entire tournament without fouling too much, which is a feat in itself and hard to do. The problem for teams that play against Edey is that they have trouble guarding him because he’s so big and tall and that seems like a tough assignment for most players. However, NC State has the Bigs that can make Edey uncomfortable, as they are good at disrupting players with their defense and getting into a player’s space. DJ Burns is a gritty player, a player who put up 29 points against Duke, and should be able to get in the paint and get his points in this game. He has the ability to go up against Edey and has the skill to draw him in. O’Connell is another player that got 11 rebounds against Duke and will be a force in this game, and the Wolfpack bring the defense that has held up so far in this tournament. The Pack excel in the underdog role too as they are 7-0 ATS in games up until this point where they have been the underdog, and NC State is 5-0 against the spread this season as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. In their Duke matchup, they were able to outplay Filipowski and so NC State should match up well against Edey and this team. Purdue, however, has started to show some cracks in the armor. Edey didn’t nail all his free throw attempts in his last game, and despite dominating Tennessee on the boards, Purdue did not shoot too deep from the 3 line so they need to be mindful of that going into this game as the Pack defends the three very well. Also in that Tennessee game, their bench scored zero points while the Pack’s bench scored 10 points versus Duke. NC State did play a good game as they kept turnovers to a minimum, they took care of the ball and shot well, and have improved on their 3 point shooting in this tournament. NC State are 12-5 against the spread this season when they commit less than 12 turnovers per game after 15 plus games this season, against good ball handling teams. Overall, this seems like too many points for Purdue to cover, especially if they get into foul trouble. The Wolfpack are a gritty, feisty team and should be able to be competitive and grind away in this game to cover the number.

Best bet: take the points with NC State.