Cleveland have past injuries they still are dealing with but they have played a little better lately and the Heat at home as a favorite is not a spot to take them in. They may win the game but they don't have a great home covering record. The Cavaliers can keep this game close and possibly win it outright. The Heat are 12-21 ATS at home. The road team seam to get the covers in this series between these two and they last game was decided by three points. Plus Miami have not covered in their last five home games and Cleveland are playing with revenge.

Miami are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home. Cleveland is 10-1 ATS off a road loss this season. Cleveland is 11-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 21-35 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland are 10-3 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Cleveland are 10-3 ATS this season revenging a same season loss vs opponent. Cleveland are 8-2 ATS this season after a loss by 10 points or more. Miami are 2-5 ATS this season off an upset loss as a home favorite.

Best bet: take the points with Cleveland.