Texas tech are playing amazing right now, they have covered in their last four games, but this matchup against the best team in the conference is where their luck stops. Despite this being a revenge game for them after they got blown out earlier in the season by the Cougars, it is going to be tough for them to get past Houston's lock down defense that is holding opponents to under 56.5 points per game. Texas Tech still have some issues despite playing well like turning over the ball and they can't do that with Houston, as well as not being as strong on defense. They would also have to sink most of their 3's to have any chance in this game because they will face a tough Houston defense in the paint so they will be forced to get shots outside the arc. Of course, Houston won't have any problems running up the score against this team and they are super focused so they won't falter at this stage of the tournament when they see the prize, even against a hot Red Raiders team who have to play their best game this season and also prevent Houston from getting their 3's. That is a tall tough task, that is why Houston should be able to cover this spread because they are playing like a machine right now and Mack can't step in front of that.

Texas Tech are 0-1 ATS in the last few seasons as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. TT are 1-3 ATS in the last few seasons in conference tournament games. Houston are 2-1 ATS this season and 12-4 ATS in the last few seasons in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 139.5. Houston are 4-2 ATS in the last few seasons in conference tournament games.

Best bet: lay the points with Houston.