NM State will be more improved under Jerry Kill this year and have a much better QB in Eli Stowers that they picked up in the portal. Last season when they played UMass at McGuirk Stadium they beat then 23-13 and this season should be no different as they get to host the Minutemen. NM ST will run circles around this team and certainly cover the spread in their home opener this season as UMass, even though they will improve this season, are still inferior to the Aggies talent, so lay the points.

Massachusetts is 7-18 ATS in road games in the first month of the season since 1992. New Mexico ST is 1-0 against the spread in New Mexico versus UMass since 1992. UMass as a road underdog are 4-9 ATS in the last three seasons and 1-3 ATS in the first two weeks of the season in the last three years, and 4-17 ATS in the first two weeks since 1992. NM ST are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite in the last three seasons.

Best bet: lay the points with New Mexico State on the spread.