The Phillies are coming into this game off of a 7-6 win at home which tied this series 1-1, but they have not been playing well or pitching well recently. They have lost 3 of their last 5 games going back to the end of the regular season and they have allowed at least 6 runs in each of their last 2 as well as 4 of their last 5 games, including both games in this series against the Mets. They are going up against a Mets team that has been hot with their offense, winning 2 of their last 3 as well as 3 of their last 5 games going back to the Wild Card and scoring at least 6 runs in 3 of those games. Aaron Nola is starting for the Phillies in this game and he is 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA this season. He has not been pitching well in his recent starts, allowing 3 earned runs in his last start and at least 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts. He has been giving up a lot of hits in those games as well, allowing at least 6 hits in 4 of his last 5 starts, and that is going to get him into trouble against this hot Mets offense. He has also been worse on the road as he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 as well as 4 of his last 6 road starts and has been allowing a lot of hits in those as well. Sean Manaea is starting for the Mets in this game and he is 12-6 with a 3.47 ERA this season. He pitched in the Wild Card Series against the Brewers in the only game they lost in that series, but he pitched well as he only allowed 2 earned runs in 5 innings. He struggled in his last 2 starts which were both on the road, but he has pitched better in his last 2 home starts. The Mets have the hotter bats right now as they have been fighting to make the playoffs going back to the final games of the season and they are going to get to Nola for some runs in this game as they push to take the lead of this series. The Mets will win this game at home.