McCain has had an excellent tournament for Duke but now he will be defended by a Houston backcourt that held Texas A&M All-American guard Wade Taylor IV to just 5-of-26 shooting from the field. The Cougars thrive by playing a physical brand of basketball and the Duke guards are not really built for that type of game. Houston rebounds from all five positions and attacks the glass on both ends, which will limit Duke from getting second-chance points. The Cougars are holding teams to just 29% from 3-point range and came into the tournament ranked first in field goal defense. The Cougars are 13-4 against tournament teams this season. Duke's season looks good on paper but after taking a deeper dive, Duke has only played five games against ranked opponents this season, going 2-3. Houston will limit Duke's open looks from deep and they have enough to control the paint. I think Houston’s defense will be too much for Duke to overcome.

Play on Houston. This is a 2% play