This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Grizz/Pacers.

I believe this contest sets up as a defensive one, not an offensive one.

The Grizzlies are 47-22 overall, including 23-12 on the road. They're off three straight victories, with all three games going OVER the posted number. Why does that matter? Because, take note, Memphis has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last nine after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

Will Memphis get caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent to a couple days off, before a much more high-profile game at Atlanta this weekend? The possibility of that happening is definitely there obviously.

One night after pulling away for a 119-108 win at San Antonio, the Pacers fell 131-128 at the Hawks, easily covering the 12.5-point spread.

But after that marathon, fatigue is a factor here for the home side.

Expect this one to be slower-paced, which will ultimately help in driving this total UNDER the posted number.

Good luck, NP