10* NATIONAL LEAGUE TOP TOTAL - 167-135!
(MLB) Philadelphia vs. Atlanta,
Total: 8.00 | -110.00 Over
Result: Win
This is a 10* NATIONAL LEAGUE WINNER on the OVER Phillies/Braves.

Philadelphia has seen the total go 2-7-1 to the UNDER over its last ten. It's seen it go UNDER in three straight, including in yesterday's crucial series-opening 2-1 setback here.

The Braves have seen the total go UNDER in three of their last four, including two straight.

While each side has been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, I believe the value on this total has now finally swung the other way.

The Phillies go with Aaron Nola, who is 9-8 with a 4.64 ERA and who was rocked for six runs off six hits over six innings in what turned out to be a fortunate victory over the lowly Pirates on Thursday. Over five September starts Nola owns a poor 6.58 ERA spanning 26 innings of work.

Max Fried is 13-7 with a 3.12 ERA for the Braves. He's been sharp of late, posting a 1.59 ERA through five starts in September.

Fried has pitched back-to-back shutout performances, but I simply can't see him continuing that high level of play for a third straight performance.

It's do or die time for the desperate Phillies, who have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs in.

In my opinion, a great situational play on the OVER.

Good luck, NP