This is a 10* EARLY TOP IL TOTAL on the UNDER Phillies/Red Sox.

The Phillies have seen the total go OVER in seven straight, but off their big 11-2 win here yesterday, and with the All Star break starting tomorrow, and additionally with their ace on the mound as well, I think that this Sunday contest finally sets up as more of a defensive affair for the visiting side.

Same logic here for the Red Sox, who have now seen the total go OVER in in both games of this series, after having seen the total go UNDER in four straight.

Boston won the first game by a score of 11-5, so these teams have already combined for a whopping 29 runs over two games.

I expect this finale to stay well UNDER though.

The visitors go with Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.53 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits to go along with eight strikeouts over six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Tuesday.

Over 101.1 innings of work Nola the workhorse has a sharp 126:23 K:BB.

The home side counters with its ace, Nick Pivetta, who is 7-3 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Pivetta comes in off a commanding performance against the Atheltics on Sunday, going seven scoreless and striking out ten.

Pivetta has struggled with consistency at times over the first half, but he appears "locked in" to me. I think he carries over his recent momentum here in his final start before the break.

Boston has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it allowed ten or more runs in as well.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP