This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Royals/Tigers.

I was 4-1 yesterday. My one loser? The OVER in the Royals/Tigers game. While yesterday's total did fall UNDER in the end, I expect Monday's "get-a-way" game to produce plenty of runs once it's all said and done.

Obviously Spencer Turnbull was great in his season debut for the Tigers, allowing one run over five innings and striking out six vs. the soft-hitting Pirates. He posted a solid 3.97 ERA over 11 starts last year, but after landing on the COVID 19 list to open the season, I think the book is still out on Turnbull, and there's no question that he draws a tough matchup today.

Brad Keller has been a disaster in the early going for the Royals (1-2, 12.00 ERA), he most reently allowed five runs over 1.3 innings in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. Clearly Keller is a lot better than his last start would indicate, but I can't see him suddenly "flipping a switch" here and correcting everything that's wrong in under a week.

I call into question the form of both of these starters and I believe they'll each "get the hook" early, and I don't trust either team's bullpens either.

Note as well that Detroit has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 11 home games in trying to revenge a shutout home loss vs. an opponent (lost 4-0 yesterday.)

When you add it all up, this number is indeed a tad low. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP