The Iowa St Cyclones have one of the best run defenses in the country, giving up less than 50 yards per game and less than 30 yards at home, which will force the Bears to throw the ball more than they would like to, which also favors the Cyclones because they have been great against the pass as well and they’ve done a good job getting after quarterbacks.

Their defense is very tough and forces turnovers.
I don't think the Bears will be able to contain Iowa St and the Cyclones will pull away late in the game, so go with Iowa State to cover the spread.