The Pirates win a few games and all of a sudden everyone likes them now after the incredible upset sweep of the Dodgers. Pitt is still a team that ranks bottom five in both scoring offense and ERA. The Diamondbacks own a 23-18 record when playing teams not named the Dodgers this season, and Kelly has quietly developed into an effective starter who can handle this assignment.

Kelly has been a solidly above average pitcher since returning from the KBO at the start of 2019, and has an 88 ERA-/85 FIP- so far this season even while facing a brutal schedule of opposing offenses so far. This will be a much easier lineup to navigate, as the Pirates are fourth-worst in baseball in batting.

The Diamondbacks are a major step ahead of the Pirates in a matchup of teams who have exceeded expectations so far this year, and Kelly should lead Arizona to a win here.