PREMIUM
Wise Guy
(NFL) Denver vs. Oakland,
Point Spread: 11.50 | -103.00 Oakland (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: 11.50 | -103.00 Oakland (Home)
Result: Loss
This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.
This says that a team with a bad turnover rate and an inefficient defense is a very undervalued team to the tune of 1176-980-46.
As home underdogs of 7.5 or more are 220-157-4. Keep in mind that this is equivalent of road underdogs of 13.5 or more which are 165-118-8. Finally teams with at least a seven-game straight up losing streak playing a team with a winning percentage of .750 or less is 197-124-4 for 4.05.
Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.
Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.
This says that a team with a bad turnover rate and an inefficient defense is a very undervalued team to the tune of 1176-980-46.
As home underdogs of 7.5 or more are 220-157-4. Keep in mind that this is equivalent of road underdogs of 13.5 or more which are 165-118-8. Finally teams with at least a seven-game straight up losing streak playing a team with a winning percentage of .750 or less is 197-124-4 for 4.05.
