In postseason, going against red-hot non-elite teams that are coming off a long rest in which they lose their mojo is 19-1. Teams that are only in bowls because of absurd number of games, generally do well as long as they are not massive dogs. The theory is they are very happy to be there and will not lack motivation are 38-11. Texas did have a nice recruiting class and with the once-powerhouse finally having some reason to feel optimistic about the future, I would be shocked to see motivation for them an issue. Going with colder teams under specific circumstances in bowls is 45-25.