I would be shocked if Steph Curry plays. But if he does the pick would be as strong if not stronger on the adjusted line because when a superstar re-enters the line-up when a team is playing well, so often there is a step backwards before many steps forward are taken longer-term.

But we bet it at +3 under the likely scenario there is no Curry. Home teams with a lot of rest do very well in postseason, while road teams do very poorly. Of course there is a lot of overlapping, but this angle includes first games of series, so the angles are not completely repetitive.

As we have proven, the so-called NBA zigzag theory is a virtual wash. It is above .500 long-term but a slight loss with the juice. However, various bounce back angles, which take several other factors into consideration, do win long-term. Portland is in a home bounce back off blowout loss that is 144-93-3.