We upgraded to a Wise Guy as one of the very few sharp minds we respect said he is betting on the moneyline.

Yes, you read that right. The guy who has been a critic of Peyton Manning in the postseason is going with Denver. The Broncos have the best defense in the NFL. Yes I have said experience is overrated. However the oddsmakers are making it irrelevant, which it is not.

While I have said it is easier to be the hunter than the hunted, now all of a sudden Manning has the role of being a big underdog, while Cam Newton has already done a bit too much talking as he faces the toughest defense in the biggest game of his life.

Manning, like his GM John Elway, relies in savvy more than ever as he closes out his career. As Elway proved, that can be turned into a positive.

Denver holds teams to a stunning .7 yards per rushing attempt and 1.1 yards per pass below their normal average. Favorites of more than a field goald off a bye and a 28-point or more win are 0-4 all-time. No, not just the Super Bowl or playoffs. I mean ever.

Teams in a groove hate bye weeks. Meanwhile, aged QBs benefit from the time off.