NBA Intraconference Interdivisional Game of the Year

If a road favorite of 5.5 or more is coming off a loss as an underdog and/or road loss, they continue to be a profitable bet since the 1980s.

The theory being that one quality team loses to another quality squad, then will take out their frustrations on an inferior team. Our scorephone clients have won with this for more than a quarter century and when we discovered it, the winnings went back as far as our database did: to 1980.

Please note that the original angle was 5.5 or more. We noticed that after the turn of the century, shorter-term we saw the system was better at -5. However, in retrospect that fine-tuning was a wash. It is much stronger at -5.5. If the line drops below 5.5, it still applies as the angle is based on using oddsmakers knowledge against them and not affected by square moves.

As a general rule of thumb, scheduling benefits the home team if there is an unrested versus rested. However when the opposite is true and we have an unrested home versus rested road especially is the home team has less talent and likely depth (a home underdog of at least 1.5) the home team is 238-312-8 this says to fade Philly.