Take #255 Minnesota Vikings over Carolina Panthers
(NFL) Minnesota vs. Carolina,
Point Spread: -4.00 | -120.00 Minnesota (Away)
Result: Win
The NFL is all about situations, and buying-low and selling-high. Both teams have started the season 0-3, but it's the Vikings that have been the biggest let down losing two games as favorites already. The Panthers have been underdogs in all games so far, and we love the situation for Minnesota as the market starts to adjust. The regression hasn't been too surprising after last season, where they led the league by a mile in terms of positive expected variance, but we're now starting to shift too much the other way. They've played the much tougher strength of schedule, and this is one they simply have to win. In database history; when two 0-3 teams meet; the road favorite is covering at a 75% rate. We understand this is a small sample size as it simply hasn't happened that often, but it's still something worth noting. Look - the Vikings haven't looked great, but the Panthers are bad. (like, really bad). We'll take the better team at a generous price based solely on situation and incorrect market perception.