Mitch Keller has now tossed back-to-back gems, which includes only allowing one run in seven innings on the road against the Marlins on July 11. Keller has allowed three earned runs or less while going at least five innings in seven of his last nine starts. Keller has also not allowed a home run in seven of his previous eight starts, with the one exception being when he faced the New York Yankees. Expect another strong outing from Keller here against a Marlins team that has averaged an MLB-worst 2.2 runs over its last 15 games.
On the other side, Pittsburgh's offense is averaging just under 3.1 runs over their last 15 ball games, which is the fourth lowest in MLB. With Sandy Alcantara on the mound, it will be tough for Pittsburgh to get more than two runs if that. The Cy Young candidate has a 0.78 ERA over his last three starts, a 1.88 ERA on the road, and a 1.99 ERA in day games.
Take the under.