The Miami Heat are off to a solid start in the post LeBron era, winning 5-of-7 to start the season. They host rivals Indiana tonight, and the Pacers are struggling without Paul George. I expect to see a low scoring affair between two teams that know each other quite well.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pacers Defense - Indiana has lost 6-of-8 to start the season, but it's not their defense that is the problem. The Pacers rank 4th in the NBA with opponents averaging just 94.6 points per game. The problem is that they are scoring just 93 points per game themselves.

2. Line Value - These teams have seen five of the last seven head to head meetings go over the total, but the number was at least five points lower in all seven of those games.

3. X-Factor - Miami has seen the total fall short of the number in four straight home games. The Heat have also seen the total go under in nine of their last 11 when playing on two days rest.

Selection: This is a play on the Pacers@Heat to go under the total (8*)