After the Avs' shelling of Vasilevskiy and the Lightning on the road in Game two, a home-side rebound is expected from Tampa. No one expected seven goals against from the “best goalie on the planet” any more than a 16 shot shutout from Kuemper. The scoring chances in game two were completely lopsided; the Lightning will do everything in their power to slow Colorado down on home ice, and with the final change will at least have the player match up they want. I expect a better game from Vasilevskiy and tighter play from Tampa, but the Lightning are going to be awfullyy hard to slow down.

Game 2 was a masterful demonstration of defense by the Avs. I expect them to attempt more of the same disciplined play on defense, but I am sure the Lightning will be better in Game three and test Kuemper more often. A total of over 5.5 is available. In this case, take the over.