The set-up: Ole Miss still needs one more win to become eligible. Clearly this game means "more" to the Rebels than to the 7-4 Bulldogs. Mississippi State looks primed for a letdown though after winning three of four, including a satisfying beatdown of Arkansas most recently.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Mississippi State is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Mississippi is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog in the 10.5 to 14 points range. Grab the points.