The set-up: I take many different things into account when I release my picks. Plain old common sense is one of them. These two teams are desperate for a victory. Colorado has lost five straight and Edmonton has lost three in a row. Each faces some stiff upcoming competition as well. So with both teams pushing the pace tonight, I'm expecting this total to sneak "over" sooner rather than later.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Avs have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last nine following a four games or more unbeaten streak. This number is low, play the "over."