The set-up: I think Aaron Rodgers and the stumbling Green Bay Packers can keep this one respectable on Sunday night. Green Bay came up just short in a massive upset in LA last weekend and with their backs against the wall, I think the Packers bring that same intensity here on Sunday night. The Pats have won three straight and are off a short week after hammering the Bills in Buffalo on Monday night.

The teams: Packers' QB Aaron Jones had 86 yards and a TD last week. Rodgers was his usual dominant self and the defense was decent considering the opponent, posting five sacks and eight QB hits.

New England wasn't challenged last week. It didn't need starting RB Sony Michale last weekend, but I think his absence this Sunday will be more significant against this desperate visiting side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New England is just already just 2-3 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Grab the points.