The set-up: Cincinnati is 7-1 and it comes in complacent at home in my opinion, leaving the backdoor open for the 2-6 Navy Midshipmen, who come in off tough setbacks to SMU, Air Force, Temple, Houston and Notre Dame.

The teams: It's do or die for Navy, as it'll have to run the board starting now to become eligible. An outright win? Likely not. But after four straight losses and with the season on the line, we do not have to doubt the Mids motivation levels this afternoon.

The Bearcats barely managed to get past SMU 26-20 in OT last weekend. Coach Luke Fickell has his team trending in the correct direction and while the Bearcats will most likely go on to win this game, I do indeed believe that the stage is set for a mental letdown.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Navy is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Cincinnati is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I'm banking on the desperation levels that the Mids bring to the table today to keep this one competitive late. Grab the points.