The set-up: This is a great "situational" play in my opinion, as I expect the Kings to have a predictable letdown here after back-to-back home victories. After beating Washington 116-112 they Kings have had two nights off and with a game tomorrow night in Orlando, this contest also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the visitors. The Heat look to take advantage, they've won two in a row and with a tough road trip starting tomorrow night in Charlotte, I'm expecting the home side to leave everything it has on the floor tonight.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings have gone just 3-7 ATS in their last ten after two or more SU/ATS victories. Lay the points and expect a rout.