The set-up: Miami has lost three of its last four, most recently a 32-21 setback at home to Detroit, while Houston comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won four straight, most recently a commanding 20-7 win on the road over Jacksonville. On the short week, I believe points will be at a premium.

The teams: Miami was out gained 457-322 last week against a pretty bad Lions defense. And that doesn't bode well this week facing a Texans' defensive unit which is clearly "firing on all cylinders." It wasn't a pretty win last week by the Texans by any means, as they'd hold on for a slim 272-259 yardage edge in the victory.

The pick: Miami's only hope on offense is to run the ball today (18th in the league in rushing, but it's rushed for at least 100 yards in five of seven games.) Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill is injured and Brock Osweiler is "hit or miss." The Texans have been getting the job done by letting DeShaun Watson "manage" the offense and I don't think anything will change this week either. Note that Miami has seen the total go "under" in three of its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Houston has seen the total go "under" in five of its last six after two or more consecutive SU victories. This number is high, play the "under."