The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there's no doubt that this is one of them. However, the Braves Sean Newcomb has been scuffling of late and I expect that end of season decline to continue here in this difficult National League road venue. The home side goes with Derek Rodriguez, who appears to be getting better and more confident as the season has worn on.

The pitchers: Newcomb is so far 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA. He comes in off five straight poor outings, a stretch of futility in which he's posted a disastrous 8.58 ERA.

Rodriguez is so far 6-2 with a 2.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits while striking out six and walking one over six innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Tuesday. Of his 15 games he's gone to the hill this year, the rookie has thrown 12 quality efforts. To go along with his elite ERA, Rodriguez also owns a shiny 1.05 WHIP.

The pick: Additionally note that Rodriguez is holding his opponents to a tiny .211 hitting average. And finally it's worth noting that he's 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA at home. I think Rodriguez is well worth the price of admission vs. the struggling Newcomb. Play on San Francisco.