The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there's no question that this is one of them. Everything points to runs being at a premium year. The visitors turn to Erick Fedde, while the home side goes with Jake Arrieta.

The pitchers: Fedde is so far 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA. He's been sharp in Triple-A, but that success so far hasn't carried over into the big leagues, where he's posted a poor 7.06 ERA over nine big league starts. His 4.00 xFIP suggests though that he's been unlucky. Note that he also has a very respectable 34 strikeouts in that stretch.

Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA. Arrieta has been "hit or miss" like his counterpart as well this season, but overall he's been consistent. Also note that he owns a sharp 3.17 ERA in all home games this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go "under" the number in 10 of its last 17 home National League games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and -200. This number is a little high, play the "under."