The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound this evening makes the Tribe on the "run-line" the correct call in this match-up. The Indians go with the steady Carlos Carrasco, while the home side goes with the erratic Marco Estrada.

The pitchers: Carrasco is so far 16-8 with a 3.52 ERA. He most recently comes in off his worst outing of 2018, allowing five runs off nine hits (also striking out nine) over seven innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Starts like that have been rare for Carrasco the last two years though, so there's no need to over-react in my opinion. Note that he still owns a sharp 3.53 ERA and 187:33 K/BB over 161 innings of work this season.

Estrada is so far 7-11 with a 5.43 ERA. He most recently got blasted for a second straight start, giving up six earned run over 4.1 innings in a loss to Miami on Saturday. Estrada is limping towards the finish line now, having allowed 48 base runners over his last 23.2 innings of work.

The pick: And note that home field advantage has been anything but for Estrada this year as he's a poor 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA in Toronto. Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League road games in which it's a favorite in the -125 to -225 range. Play on the Indians on the "run line."