Rogers' EARLY TOTAL MASSACRE >> Went 76-55-4 in August! +$7820!
(MLB) NY Mets vs. San Francisco,
Total: 8.00 | -116.00 Under
Result: Loss
The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who have seen better days. I think runs will definitely be plentiful in this one with the Mets sending Stephen Matz to the hill and the home side going with Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Matz is so far 5-11 with a 4.36 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Nationals on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits with one walk in what turned out to be a loss. Matz has been more "miss" than "hit" this year though, especially on the road where he's just 4-5 with a 5.53 ERA.

Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits in a win over Texas on Sunday. Holland has been sharp of late, but note that he does own a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine day road National League games in which it's an underdog in the -105 to -135 range. This number is a little low, play the "over."