The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is one of them. However for a number of different reasons I think runs are going to be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Luis Severino.

The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings, striking out five and picking up a win over the Cubs on Tuesday. For the most part the veteran has been solid this year, especially on the road with a 3-2, 2.34 ERA in all "night" games.

Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.27 ERA. He's been a bit shaky of late, but overall Severino is enjoying a tremendous season. Note that he's 9-2 with a tiny 2.73 ERA in "home" games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of its last 18 night home games in which it's a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is a little high, play the "under."