The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I had a play on the "under" when these two squared off against each other last week in the Phillies' eventual late inning victory. Clearly these are two of the best in the World going head-to-head, but I think these talented hitting line-ups will produce just enough offense this time around to push the total above this tiny number.

The pitchers: Max Scherzer is 16-6 with a 2.13 ERA. He gave up two runs off two hits with four walks while striking out ten over seven innings in the 2-0 loss to Philadelphia last week.

Aaron Nola is so far 15-3 with a 2.13 ERA. He went eight scoreless against the Nats and he's now gone 3-0 while posting 25 strikeouts over his last 21 innings of work.

The pick: Clearly it's impossible to say anything negative about either of these guys. But note that the Phillies have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last ten night home games as an underdog in the +100 to +175 range. This number is just a little low, play the "over."