The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this total will sneak "over" before the end. The visitors hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, while the home side goes with Charlie Morton.

The pitchers: Jackson is so far 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA. He most recently was shelled for four runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings, striking out two and walking three in a loss to the Rangers on Wednesday. After finishing a poor 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA last year, it would seem as if Jackson is now finally starting to "regress to the norm."

Morton is so far 13-3 with a 3.05 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over five innings in a no-decision to these very A's on Friday. Morton's been solid across the board, but note that the Astros have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last nine night home games in which they're a favorite in the -150 to -250 range.

The pick: I think Jackson's early sparkling numbers are unsustainable and I believe his latest poor performance is the start of what will end up becoming a massive decline to end the season. Morton has been sharp, but I like the Astros' dangerous hitting line-up to produce some runs this evening. This number is a little low, play the "over."